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A roundup of machine learning forecasts and market estimates for 2018

  • Machine learning patents grew at a 34% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2013 and 2017, the third-fastest growing category of all patents granted
  • International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts that spending on AI and ML will grow from $12bn in 2017 to $57.6bn by 2021
  • Deloitte Global predicts the number of machine learning pilots and implementations will double in 2018 compared to 2017, and double again by 2020

These and many other fascinating insights are from the latest series of machine learning market forecasts, market estimates, and projections.

Machine learning’s potential impact across many of the world’s most data-prolific industries continues to fuel venture capital investment, private equity (PE) funding, mergers, and acquisitions all focused on winning the race of Intellectual Property (IP) and patents in this field. One of the fastest growing areas of machine learning IP is the development of custom chipsets. Deloitte Global is predicting up to 800K machine learning chips will be in use across global data centers this year.

Enterprises are increasing their research, investment, and piloting of machine learning programs in 2018. And while the methodologies all vary across the many sources of forecasts, market estimates, and projections, all reflect how machine learning is improving the acuity and insights of companies on how to grow faster and more profitably. Key takeaways from the collection of machine learning market forecasts, market estimates and projections include the following:

Within the business intelligence (BI) & analytics market, data science platforms that support machine learning are predicted to grow at a 13% CAGR through 2021

Data science platforms will outperform the broader BI & analytics market, which is predicted to grow at an 8% CAGR in the same period. Data Science platforms will grow in value from $3B in 2017 to $4.8B in 2021. Source: An Investors’ Guide to Artificial Intelligence, J.P. Morgan. November 27, 2017 (110 pp., PDF, no opt-in).

Machine learning patents grew at a 34% CAGR between 2013 and 2017, the third-fastest growing category of all patents granted

IBM, Microsoft, Google, LinkedIn, Facebook, Intel, and Fujitsu were the seven biggest ML patent producers in 2017. Source: IFI Claims Patent Services (Patent Analytics) 8 Fastest Growing Technologies SlideShare Presentation.

61% of organizations most frequently picked machine learning / artificial intelligence as their company’s most significant data initiative for next year

Of those respondent organizations indicating they actively use Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), 58% percent indicated they ran models in production. Source: 2018 Outlook: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, A Survey of 1,600+ Data Professionals (14 pp., PDF, no opt-in).

Tech market leaders including Amazon, Apple, Google, Tesla, and Microsoft are leading their industry sectors by a wide margin in machine learning (ML) and AI investment

Each is designing ML into future-generation products and using ML and AI to improve customer experiences and improve the efficiency of selling channels. Source: Will You Embrace AI Fast Enough? AT Kearney, January 2018.

SAS, IBM, and SAP lead the predictive analytics and machine learning market based on 23 evaluation criteria applied to 14 vendors by Forrester in 2017

Forrester predicts the Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning (PAML) market will grow at a 21% CAGR through 2021 as evidenced by the increase in client inquiries and purchasing activity they are seeing with clients. Source: Data Science Association, Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning Vendors, 2017 and The Forrester Wave™: Predictive Analytics And Machine Learning Solutions, Q1 2017 courtesy of SAP.

Deloitte Global predicts the number of machine learning pilots and implementations will double in 2018 compared to 2017, and double again by 2020

Factors driving the increasing pace of ML pilots include more pervasive support of Application Program Interfaces (APIs), automating data science tasks, reducing the need for training data, accelerating training and greater insight into explaining results. Source: Deloitte Global Predictions 2018 Infographics.

60% of organizations at varying stages of machine learning adoption, with nearly half (45%) saying the technology has led to more extensive data analysis & insights

35% can complete faster data analysis and increased the speed of insight, delivering greater acuity to their organizations. 35% are also finding that machine learning is enhancing their R&D capabilities for next-generation products. Source: Google & MIT Technology Review study: Machine Learning: The New Proving Ground for Competitive Advantage (10 pp., PDF, no opt-in).

McKinsey estimates that total annual external investment in AI was between $8B to $12B in 2016, with machine learning attracting nearly 60% of that investment

McKinsey estimates that total annual external investment in AI was between $8B to $12B in 2016, with machine learning attracting nearly 60% of that investment. Robotics and speech recognition are two of the most popular investment areas. Investors are most favoring machine learning startups due to quickness code-based start-ups have at scaling up to include new features fast. Software-based machine learning startups are preferred over their more cost-intensive machine-based robotics counterparts that often don’t have their software counterparts do. As a result of these factors and more, Corporate M&A is soaring in this area. The following graphic illustrates the distribution of external investments by category from the study. Source: McKinsey Global Institute Study, Artificial Intelligence, The Next Digital Frontier (80 pp., PDF, free, no opt-in).

Deloitte Global is predicting machine learning chips used in data centres will grow from a 100k to 200k run rate in 2016 to 800k this year

At least 25% of these will be Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) and Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). Deloitte found the Total Available Market (TAM) for Machine Learning (ML) Accelerator technologies could potentially reach $26bn by 2020. Source: Deloitte Global Predictions 2018.

Amazon is relying on machine learning to improve customer experiences in key areas of their business including product recommendations, substitute product prediction, fraud detection, meta-data validation and knowledge acquisition

For additional details, please see the presentation, Machine Learning At Amazon, Amazon Web Services (47 pp., PDF no opt-in).

​Other statistics

Sources of market data on machine learning:

2018 Outlook: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, A Survey of 1,600+ Data Professionals. MEMSQL. (14 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

Advice for applying Machine Learning, Andrew Ng, Stanford University. (30 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

An Executive’s Guide to Machine Learning, McKinsey Quarterly. June 2015

An Investors’ Guide to Artificial Intelligence, J.P. Morgan. November 27, 2017 (110 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

Artificial intelligence and machine learning in financial services Market developments and financial stability implications, Financial Stability Board. (45 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

Big Data and AI Strategies Machine Learning and Alternative Data Approach to Investing, J.P. Morgan. (280 pp., PDF. No opt-in).

Google & MIT Technology Review study: Machine Learning: The New Proving Ground for Competitive Advantage (10 pp., PDF, no opt-in).

Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips, Deloitte. (6 pp., PDF, no opt-in).

How Do Machines Learn? Algorithms are the Key to Machine Learning. Booz Allen Hamilton. (Infographic)

IBM Predicts Demand For Data Scientists Will Soar 28% By 2020, Forbes. May 13, 2017

Machine Learning At Amazon, Amazon Web Services (47 pp., PDF no opt-in).

Machine Learning Evolution (infographic). PwC. April 17, 2017 Machine learning: things are getting intense. Deloitte (6 pp., PDF. No opt-in)

Machine Learning: The Power and Promise Of Computers That Learn By Example. The Royal Society’s Machine Learning Project (128 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

McKinsey Global Institute Study, Artificial Intelligence, The Next Digital Frontier (80 pp., PDF, free, no opt-in)

McKinsey’s State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017, Forbes, July 9, 2017

Predictions 2017: Artificial Intelligence Will Drive The Insights Revolution. Forrester, November 2, 2016 (9 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

Risks And Rewards: Scenarios around the economic impact of machine learning, The Economist Intelligence Unit. (80 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

Smartening up with Artificial Intelligence (AI) – What’s in it for Germany and its Industrial Sector? Digital/McKinsey & Company. (52 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

So What Is Machine Learning Anyway?  Business Insider. Nov. 23, 2017

The 10 Most Innovative Companies In AI/Machine Learning 2017, Wired

The Business Impact and Use Cases for Artificial Intelligence. Gartner (28 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

The Build-Or-Buy Dilemma In AI, Boston Consulting Group. January 4, 2018.

The Next Generation of Medicine: Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, TM Capital (25 pp., PDF, free, opt-in)

The Roadmap to Enterprise AI, Rage Networks Brief based on Gartner research. (17 pp., PDF, no opt-in)

Will You Embrace AI Fast Enough? AT Kearney. January 2018